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It is very unlikely that the PM will get his way today – here’s why

by Ace Damon
Boris Johnson is hoping to succeed where Theresa May failed

There were two pieces of information about the vote at Parliament's first sitting since 1982 – factual, political.

The first was that the government "voted" after losing the Letwin amendment, which dictated that the Prime Minister's agreement could not be authorized until all Brexit-related legislation was passed.

The other was that nothing was decided, that it was a wet baby. Both are false.

Image:
Boris Johnson in the House of Commons Photo: UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor

Instead, Commons made a decision and the vote was not withdrawn. Following the approval of the Letwin amendment, the government effectively opted not to contest the main motion. So the whole thing just went by the nod.

That was the decision Commons made. This means that although Jacob Rees-Mogg has announced that the government wants to resume a vote on the deal today, in all likelihood they will not be able to do so.

The speaker will almost certainly dismiss the idea because the House cannot consider the same issue twice in one sitting, and this expressly contradicts Letwin's amendment.

And so, the only way for the government to conclude its business is through this legislation, namely the Draft Withdrawal Agreement (WAB).

Debate about Brexit. Photo: © UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor

MPs face another blunt week

The plan appears to be the introduction of the WAB on Tuesday. But this is full of problems that do not exist with the significant vote.

The WAB is a dense statute that sets Brexit's legal details and paves the way for our departure. The problem is that it can be changed in any way possible.

The most interesting possible amendment is the idea of ​​a second referendum, but this is probably a problem, as the votes (probably) do not yet exist.

Protesters hold EU and Union posters and flags while participating in a People's Vote march

How Saturday's Brexit Drama Played Out

What could blow the government's game plan is an amendment to a customs union, something that attracts support throughout the House of Commons (which almost passed during the indicative voting process earlier this year) and cuts the policy of the government.

This is made even more likely by the fact that DUP's 10 votes are, after their abandonment by the government, in dispute for the first time. A customs union would please them because it would apply to the whole of the United Kingdom.

Its red line, of which Northern Ireland is treated in the same way as the other three nations, would be observed. But it is actually a destructive amendment because it is anathema to much of the Conservative Party.

Therefore, it is highly likely that the government will have to withdraw the account completely. All options for Brexit before the end of the month would have evaporated.

In fact, it is not clear that the government may have a chance to introduce the WAB. This will require approval of a so-called "program motion" that allows the government to determine when something is debated, the terms of the debate, and for how long. It is perfectly possible that they will not have votes to do so, or that parliamentarians will try to push it past the October deadline.

Also, the government should hold the last days of debate over the queen's speech (remember that? It was just a week ago). Once again, the government may lose this vote.

If Boris Johnson did this, he would be the first PM to lose a vote in the queen's (or the king's) speech since Stanley Baldwin in 1924. Historically, this would be treated as a matter of trust and the prime minister would either resign or seek a dissolution. parliament.

However, thanks to the Term Parliaments Act, this is no longer strictly the case. But after a defeat, the pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to cast a vote of distrust would be immense.

MPs vote in favor of the Letwin Amendment by a majority of 16

Saturday: Moment MPs Blow Blow for PM

In other words, the minority government's curse could strike once, twice, three times or more this week. If it becomes clear that there is no way for the government to get the WAB without patches (and therefore, despite a potential latent majority, there is no way for the MP to process its agreement), the already rigid parliamentary deadlock will become absolute and immobile.

And I wonder if in the end this might be the best thing for Boris Johnson. Worth losing this battle, win the war.

For if the impasse cannot be broken and Brussels grants an extension until the end of January, as requested, the pressure on the opposition to finally join election number 10 will do so will be great.

Nigel Farage not satisfied with Brexit's latest deal

Prime Minister Brexit Agreement is & # 39; rotten & # 39; – Farage

Without an agreement once again removed from the table, there will be little excuse for not finally voting for one (although some parties may try). If Labor agreed, however, we would be looking at an election in early December.

And perhaps, despite the month's delay, there would be no better time to hold this election, not a more potentially enlightening or purifying moment.

Because now the respective platforms of the parties would finally be clear. There would be a realistic and simple choice for voters.

John McDonnell is unimpressed by the Prime Minister's letters to the EU

McDonnell: PM & # 39; s like a spoiled brat & # 39;

Conservatives would have a joint Brexit joint platform to fight: the Boris Johnson deal. Meanwhile, the work would offer a new referendum. Choosing either would break the deadlock and confer what is so desperately needed: legitimacy, one way or another.

Even if parliament were suspended, the parties would have a renewed mandate, correlated with the current situation, not the political world now distant from 2017.

The main parties would be devoid of rebels, many standing or purged. So it would probably be easier, even if no party had a majority of its own, to build one for Brexit. At the very least, the deputies in the next parliament could hardly be worse at doing so than their own.

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